The fallibility of opinion

Things you will never hear a market commentator say.

  1. I don’t know
  2. I was wrong

I’ve been amusing myself today by googling who* gave Steinhoff a buy recommendation recently… and then looking them up on twitter to see what they are tweeting about. Surprisingly not a lot of contrition/mea culpa going on.

*a lot of (weirdly) charismatic financial journalists who are (supposedly) balls deep into the market

The sad truth is, if you care what a market commentator thinks about a stock… you shouldn’t be trading. You should be in index funds exclusively, something capped or equally weighted. Personally I prefer capped because of the churn that happens in an equally weighted. But really, I don’t think one is necessarily better than the other.

If you just got wiped out by Steinhoff you need to have a long hard look at your strategy. Well… maybe you should stop crying first, pick yourself up off the floor and then take a good hard look at your strategy.

No single stock should be that much of a body blow. You need to stop with your social media outrage, realize that you are an idiot and take some responsibility. Also, toughen the fuck up.

If your portfolio only wobbled by a percentage point or two I think you get to strut in a malapert fashion for a bit. But stop short of schadenfreude or expressing an exaggerated sense of self. Also well done. Maybe you know what you’re doing.